Threat Analysis
Detailed assessment of global terrorism threats and their evolution
ISIS-K
HIGH THREAT
Islamic State Khorasan Province maintains strong operational capability in Afghanistan and Pakistan, conducting sophisticated attacks against civilian and government targets.
Primary Area
Afghanistan/Pakistan
Est. Strength
2,000-4,000
Recent Activity
8 incidents
Primary Tactics
Suicide bombings
Key Capabilities
- • Sophisticated suicide bombing operations
- • Extensive recruitment networks
- • Media and propaganda expertise
- • Cross-border operational reach
Al-Qaeda Network
MEDIUM THREAT
Al-Qaeda and its affiliates continue to exploit instability in Yemen and Syria, maintaining operational capabilities despite leadership losses.
Primary Area
Yemen/Syria
Est. Strength
1,500-3,000
Recent Activity
5 incidents
Primary Tactics
Guerrilla warfare
Affiliate Networks
- • AQAP (Al-Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula)
- • HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) in Syria
- • Al-Shabaab in Somalia
- • JNIM in Sahel (indirect affiliation)
Far-right Extremism
MONITORING
Transnational far-right extremism poses growing threat across Europe and United States, with increasing focus on accelerationist ideologies.
Primary Area
Europe/US
Threat Level
Variable
Recent Activity
3 incidents
Primary Tactics
Lone actor attacks
Key Trends
- • Accelerationist ideology spread
- • Transnational network connections
- • Online radicalization platforms
- • 3D-printed weapons development