Regional Analysis

Comprehensive threat assessment and group analysis across African terrorism hotspots

Select Region for Detailed Analysis

Current Threat Level

HIGH

JNIM and IS-Sahel continue coordinated attacks with increasing sophistication

Recent Activity

Last 7 Days 8 incidents
Casualties 67 killed/injured
Primary Tactic Drone warfare

Capability Assessment

Operational
Technology
Territory Control

Terrorist Group Profiles

Detailed analysis of active terrorist organizations in the region

JNIM (Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin)

HIGH THREAT
JNIM Analysis

Al-Qaeda affiliate operating across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Increased sophistication in drone warfare and coordinated attacks.

Primary Area: Sahel Region
Est. Strength: 2,000-3,000
Recent Activity: 12 incidents
Tactics: Drones, IEDs

Recent Operational Developments

JNIM has demonstrated significant advancement in drone capabilities, conducting armed drone strikes across three countries. The group has successfully integrated drone surveillance with ground operations, showing tactical evolution.

Key Capabilities

  • • Armed drone operations across Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger
  • • Coordination with FLA (Azawad forces) in northern Mali
  • • Sophisticated IED manufacturing and deployment
  • • Extensive local recruitment networks

IS-Sahel (Islamic State-Sahel Province)

HIGH THREAT
IS-Sahel Analysis

Islamic State affiliate focused on tri-state border region. Known for brutal tactics and expansion into southern Niger.

Primary Area: Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger
Est. Strength: 1,000-2,000
Recent Activity: 6 incidents
Tactics: Massacres, IEDs

Expansion Strategy

IS-Sahel has expanded operations southward into Niger's Dosso region, threatening coastal states. The group exploits ethnic tensions and weak governance for recruitment.

Operational Tactics

  • • Large-scale massacres of civilian populations
  • • Complex attacks on military installations
  • • Use of motorcycles for rapid mobility
  • • Gold mining operations for funding

Recent Incident Timeline

Chronological overview of terrorism incidents in the region

Sahel Region Timeline

JNIM Base Attack

Sept 24

Coordinated assault on military base in Djibo, Burkina Faso. 23 soldiers killed.

JNIM High Threat

IS-Sahel Ambush

Sept 23

Complex ambush on military convoy in Gao region, Mali. 15 casualties.

IS-Sahel High Threat

JNIM Drone Strike

Sept 19

Armed drone attack on military outpost in western Niger. 5 injured.

JNIM Medium Threat

JNIM Convoy Ambush

Sept 15

Complex ambush on military convoy in central Mali. 28 soldiers killed.

JNIM High Threat

Attack Method Analysis